Posts in Commercial Real Estate News

Tech Centers Driving Growth and Greater Commercial Real Estate Occupancy in Multiple Cities

January 31, 2012

A mid-January commentary in The Kiplinger Letter stated that the technology industry is driving growth, jobs and economic vigor with California leading the way (the state accounted for one in seven jobs created in the U.S. during 2011). In addition to the San Jose (Silicon Valley) to San Francisco submarkets, metro areas reaping the tech benefit are Seattle, Boise, Phoenix, Austin, San Diego and in the east, Raleigh N.C.

During the recent two years, the San Francisco Bay Area’s tech-strong economy, along with market drivers in social media, gaming and life sciences, have generated a larger volume of big transactions in Silicon Valley than just about any other period in history.

From early 2010 through the close of 2011, a combined 98 lease and sale transactions of 100,000 square feet or greater closed from San Jose to San Carlos, with an astounding total of 22,104,951 square feet of office and R&D space, according to Cornish & Carey Commercial Newmark Knight Frank.

The Bay Area’s commercial real estate market gained traction in 2010 and genuinely caught fire in 2011.

During 2011, 68 transactions of 100,000 square feet or greater closed in office and R&D sectors, totaling 15,862,169 square feet. In fact, total net absorption for Silicon Valley office and R&D product for 2011 was 5,483,943 square feet – an amount that is even greater than 1999 and 2000, which were record years before the dot.com bubble burst.

While the Bay Area witnessed several mega deals (Facebook and VMware each did nearly 1 million-square-foot deals and Google did one in excess of 700,000 square feet), commercial real estate conditions improved in the other tech cities as well.

In Austin, the overall office vacancy rate has declined to 16%, the lowest level in three years, according to Grubb & Ellis. Meanwhile, the Seattle Times ran an article late last year with a headline: ‘Commercial Landlords Rejoice! The Office Vacancy Rate is Dropping.’ The Times article cited a 55,000-square-foot leased inked by Expedia in Bellevue’s news Skyline Tower. And in Boise, one of the city’s headquarters companies – Clearwater Analytics, expanded its downtown presence last year by leasing an additional 11,561 square feet in the 9th & Idaho building, reports Colliers International. In addition, with office vacancy hovering at 16% during the 4th quarter of 2011 and Micron Technology continuing to expand its physical presence in Boise, additional start-up tech companies are likely to find opportunity in this market.  One example is the company Balihoo, which just secured an additional $5,000,000 of venture capital funding to expand its national presence.  Balihoo is headquartered in Boise.

Tech is not only driving jobs, but wages, too.

Tech-jobs website operator Dice Holdings Inc. reported that average annual salaries for Silicon Valley technology workers surpassed the $100,000 mark last year, pushed higher by the competition among tech companies to recruit and retain software and other engineers and programmers. The Valley’s tech salaries increase 5.2% in 2011, to $104,195, compared with a 2% increase for tech workers in the rest of the United States, to $81,237.

On the flip side, Kiplinger forecasted for this year that ports, manufacturing and warehousing will slow down around NYC, Northern New Jersey and Connecticut because of volatility in the stock markets with layoffs in NYC, and recession in Europe.

Posted by Gary Marsh

 

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Small Businesses Spur Job Growth

December 5, 2011

Like holiday cheer, good news emerged last week when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. employers had added 140,000 new jobs in November, causing the unemployment rate to plummet to 8.6% — from 9%, in a single month. This, despite 20,000 government jobs lost during the month at the federal, state and local levels.

Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi attributed much of the job growth to small businesses, and broadly across many industries, from retail and hospitality to manufacturing.

The ADP National Employment Report backed Zandi’s statement up, claiming that 206,000 private-sector jobs were created in November with only 6% by companies that have more than 500 workers, while 53% of the new jobs were created by businesses with fewer than 49 employees.

Typically, commercial real estate absorption and vacancy rate trends lag employment gains or losses by 6-12 months. We took a look at a few U.S. communities with the intent of monitoring Houston commercial real estate, San Diego commercial real estate and Portland commercial real estate.

The unemployment rate in Houston County Texas was 11.7% as of September (most current data) and trending upward, yet the citywide average office vacancy rate at the end of the third quarter was 16.0%, down from 16.6% a year earlier, according to Colliers International.

The unemployment rate in San Diego County California was 9.7% as of September and trending downward, while San Diego’s office vacancy dropped to 13.9% at the close of the third quarter, according to CoStar, which also reported net positive absorption of 532,516 square feet during the period.

In Portland, Oregon, the unemployment rate was 9.1% at the end of September and trending downward (1.3% year-to-date). Coincidentally, Portland’s Central Business District office vacancy rate was 9.1% at the close of the third quarter, down considerably from 11.9% at the end of the second quarter this year, reports Cushman & Wakefield. Meanwhile, the suburban office vacancy rate also declined steeply in the third quarter to 15.6%, from 22.6% in the second quarter this year (which C&W says was the peak of Portland’s office vacancy rate).

We’ll check these same date points after the first quarter next year to follow the relationship between employment and office vacancy trends.

Posted by Gary Marsh

 

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The Emergence of Online Search in Commercial Real Estate Marketing

Learn how to effectively market yourself online.
Tim Thornton

Having begun my career in commercial real estate in 1988, I have seen what I consider to be the beginning of the application of consumer technology within the commercial real estate industry.  I remember going to the One-Hour Photo and picking up hundreds of copies of building photos, and systematically gluing them to property marketing flyers that were created on IBM Selectric typewriters.  The strange thing is this doesn’t feel like it was that long ago.  It must be though, because as I was drafting this, Microsoft Word’s online dictionary flagged “Selectric” as a non-word and subsequently tried to correct it.

 

Fast-forward several years to 1995.  This is the year that LoopNet was founded.  Many people reading this article will remember the office file drawer that was reserved for each office’s proprietary commercial listing database.  This database was usually nothing more than one office’s attempt to gather all of the broker mailers available and catalog each available property marketing flyer by submarket and property type.  At that time, it was common to hear brokers state, “there will never be a commercial multiple listing service like there is in residential brokerage.  We protect our information and our proprietary database is part of what sets us apart from our competition.”

LoopNet, CoStar, Propertyfirst.com, Property Line, Xceligent and others paved the way for the proprietary office database to become a relic, and standardized the way in which commercial real estate agents share and present information.  Not only did we not know what the worldwide web was in the late 80’s, who would have ever conceived that a commercial multiple-listing service such as LoopNet would have over 37,000 visits every day? (Source: Quantcast.com)  To say that this type of technology has revolutionized the commercial brokerage business is an understatement.

Of course, there are many ways in which technology has impacted our industry. One area that is rapidly emerging is in the area known as Search or Online Search.  Simply put, Search means using an online search engine such as Google to help an individual find a product or resource on the Internet. Here are some facts gleaned from Google that will shed light on the role that the Internet plays in Search as it relates to the commercial real estate industry:

 

PHRASE                                                         AVERAGE MONTHLY SEARCHES IN U.S.

Commercial Real Estate Agent:                                33,100

Commercial Real Estate Management:                   8,100

Commercial Properties For Sale:                             74,00

 

By contrast, the number of searches on Google for these items in 1995 (the same year that LoopNet began) was zero.  This is because Google didn’t file for incorporation until 1998. As an interesting side-note, Google was previously named BackRub.

We can now expect that the next generation of commercial real estate specialists is very Internet savvy, and uses the Internet for virtually all facets of their lives.  This plays into the ideology that we need to make sure that more than just our listings can be found easily on the Internet, and not simply found but analyzed, compared, and displayed in a format that both novices and computer pros can understand.

We have moved past the era of websites functioning like simple, online brochures and into a period featuring high-level websites that allow people to search for commercial real estate service providers and properties that keep up with the pace of technological innovation.  Business owners and operatives in the commercial real estate industry have a lot of work to do just to stay current, much less apply some of the basic techniques to their businesses, but having a well designed, easy to navigate and properly search-engine-optimized website is a fundamental requirement these days.

THE FUNDAMENTALS OF SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION AND SEARCH MARKETING

With phone books on the way to becoming obsolete, the Internet has become the place of choice to search for commercial real estate information and service providers.  While it’s doubtful that we will ever completely stop phoning a peer to seek a recommendation, many people prefer to search anonymously and create short lists based on their needs, such as identifying potential specialists before entering a new market.  Another example of current search use occurs when making a broker or management change on a property or tenant-rep assignment.

There are numerous key factors that determine whether or not your information is found during a search online, without having to pay for display advertising within search results.  Three of the more obvious ways help boost your rankings are:

  • The amount of time your website has been indexed by a search engine
  • The number of links back to your website from other “relevant” websites
  • Optimization of certain industry specific keywords

Search Engine Optimization (SEO) is really a specialty unto itself.  When your website is properly optimized and thus returned within the first few pages of an engine’s search results, the site is considered to have a high “organic” ranking.  In this context, the word “organic” means that no money or other artificial ingredient would be added to obtain high search rankings.  By contrast, Google and other top search engines typically reserve the top few search results for companies who pay to be placed at the top of search results and is known as Search Engine Marketing (SEM).  Sometimes, these are called sponsor ads or display ads but in any event, a company pays a certain amount every time a searcher clicks on their entry.  This is known as Pay-Per-Click (PPC) advertising and is a very common practice today.  Websites bid on certain keywords or search-phrases and how much they bid determines where in the search results they show up.  Ranking high on a search engine’s results can be very competitive, ranging from a few pennies per click to $50 or more per click.  It is both industry and phrase dependent, for example, the keywords “real estate broker” may be more costly to bid on than “commercial real estate broker” due to the larger number of websites that may be bidding on these keywords.  It is also imperative that you really understand your target audience, and only bid on keywords and phrases that are likely to bring the right customer or client to your website, because you will pay for every click, regardless of whether or not the user is looking for your type of business.

In closing, let’s not lose sight of the goal of technology, including Internet marketing and networking — which is to drive business. Too often, people can get caught in a vicious circle and chase their tails to keep up with the latest technology. Being actively engaged online is becoming critical as more people use the Internet to search for commercial real estate professionals. However, the key is to determine what works best for your desired goals, which innovation is most cost effective and which of these require minimal upkeep on your end.  With myriad ways to spend your marketing dollars, Search, and PPC are going to become more important than paying for “impressions,” as has been a traditional way of measuring online exposure in recent years. As in life, throwing all of your eggs into one basket may not be the best use of your resources.  Rather, cast a wider, smarter online net to ultimately create more leads for your business.

 

About the author: Tim Thornton has been a commercial real estate broker since 1988, and is the founder of Zoliath.com, a web based application for the commercial real estate industry.  Tim can be reached at www.zoliath.com.

 

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Zoliath.com Press Release

Boise, ID (August 17, 2011) – Zoliath.com Founder & CEO Tim Thornton announced today that after an 18-month beta test period with more than 800 original members, the search-based and members-only website – Zoliath.com, is now officially open to commercial real estate practitioners nationwide.

Zoliath.com is the nation’s premier directory of commercial real estate providers and its website is dedicated to connecting property owners, investors and tenants with businesses and professionals that work within the commercial real estate industry. Zoliath Founder Thornton has worked in commercial real estate for more than two decades beginning in San Diego as a rookie broker with CBRE specializing in retail and office commercial brokerage. Thornton is currently a partner in the Boise, ID brokerage firm, Intermountain Commercial Real Estate, LLC.

The core categories and industries Zoliath enables businesses to promote their firms within are: Aerial Photography Companies, Appraisal Companies, Architectural Firms, Banks, Building Inspection Companies, Commercial Real Estate Brokerages and Property Management Firms, General Contractors, Insurance Companies, Law Firms, Mortgage and Lending Companies and Signage Companies. Zoliath.com “mines” the major search engines with well placed, industry specific advertisements in order to deliver your potential client to its website. Zoliath.com is set to allow visitors to search for service providers at a city or regional level, and to filter these searches according to exacting specifications.

A typical Zoliath member has a detailed online profile which will enable commercial property owners, investors and tenants to find and review the specialists they need by state, city and category, using search technology that is similar, but more targeted, than major search engines (including Google, Yahoo and Bing). Zoliath membership and a basic site profile are free, though members go through a vetting process prior to membership acceptance to ensure specialization. Members can opt to enhance their profiles using pay-per-click campaigns with set monthly budgets, with each click only $1.99.

“We’ve created a format that connects industry specific people and the way they find companies by geographic locations these days,” said Zoliath CEO Tim Thornton, adding that in June of this year there were more than 40,000 searches in Google for the phrase “commercial real estate broker” followed by a city or state.

For more information, contact Tim Thornton, Founder & CEO of Zoliath.com at
(208) 345.6550 or email info@zoliath.com and visit www.zoliath.com

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Commercial Real Estate Financing Update-May 2011

BANK LOANS

Banks are not in the loan term fixed rate business, but their rates are attractive.  Banks are offering short term loans (3yr-5yr) at attractive rates keyed to short term swaps or Treasuries yields.  However, the favorable rate is offset by the high risk that at loan maturity in 2014 – 2016  the property will require refinancing in a future higher interest rate market and a higher cap rate market, or both.  If rents do not escalate during the term of the short term loan, then the result will be that refi loan proceeds may not equal the amount of maturing debt which must be paid off.

LARGE LONG TERM FIXED RATE LOANS

Many lenders (except Fannie and Freddie) are hedging risk by keeping LTV moderate.  There are exceptions, but the 75% LTV for commercial real estate is still considered an “exception”.  In contrast, Fannie Mae will lend on apartments up to 80% LTV under some circumstances.

Generally on larger life company deals and CMBS deals ($10M minimum), a best-in-class rate today on what would be considered a maximum leveraged loan would be 5.50% -5.75%.  On 5/5/11 the 10 Yr T Yield was 3.16%, the lowest point since the first week of December 2010.  Spreads are also contracting currently so rates for larger deals may reach new 2011 lows in the short term.  Smaller deals will not enjoy the same low rate level as larger deals.

SMALL LIFE COMPANY LONG TERM FIXED RATE LOANS

As a market indicator for small (~5%M) long term, fixed rate loans, below are lending criteria adopted by a life company which specializes in small commercial property loans, i.e., loans in the $2M – $6M range.  This lender has remained active throughout the capital markets collapse.  However, like most life companies, large or small, their underwriting criteria remain very cautious.

Small Life Company Criteria:

  • low leverage, typically 60% – 65% LTV
  • high DSCR, average deal is 2.08 DSCR
  • limited cash out, generally no cash out on refi
  • low cash flow risk, diversified rent rolls with no lease hangout for major tenants
  • average loan size $4M, loan range $2M – $6M and up to $10M for conservative transactions*
  • recourse required on some deals
  • loan term: 8yr – 25 yr, fixed rate
  • self-amortizing loans (15yr – 20yr – 25yr) are available in conservative situations.  Typically self-amortizing loans will tend towards shorter amortization, versus longer amortization, so cash flow to borrower is more constrained.

*presumably the life company does not consider its standard underwriting requirements above to be “conservative” so the have yet another class called “conservative” into which they put bullet-proof deals.  After the S&P notice of “negative” outlook for US Treasury bonds, the life company may consider Treasuries to be high risk.

PROSPECTS

It is likely that during Q3 & 4 2011 more lenders will become active in the loan range <$10M, which is currently a very underserved market.  We have already seen some aggressiveness with lenders concerning choice properties in the larger loan category.  Part of that aggressiveness is evidenced in the willingness of CMBS lenders to consider Secondary or Tertiary Markets* such as Boise, Idaho.

Owners with properties which have no hair on them will consider to be well received by lenders; however properties with hair on them…not so much.

All lenders are concerned with borrower financial strength, even nonrecourse lenders.  Their object is to place the loan in the hands of someone who has sufficient liquidity and financial wherewithal to withstand bad news, should bad news be found in borrowers path.  More so, recourse lenders (banks and small life companies) are even more concerned about the quality of borrower assets and borrower liquidity.  Bank lenders may have short memories, but they are not so short that the banks have forgotten the bind created when borrowers with illiquid assets confronted the reality that Cash Is King.

The good news is that effectively all lenders have short memories and as soon as they can rationalize looser standards, especially in the face of keen competition, they will abandon their virtuous behavior.

Recall how Charles Prince, deposed CEO of basket-case Citibank observed before the crash:  ”As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance,” he said. “We’re still dancing.”  Capitalism’s “creative destruction” **is always preceded by the marvelous effect of competition causing creative irrational exuberance.

*If “Secondary” or “Tertiary” were defined according to risk, rather than size and perceived importance, then Boise would have to be considered a Prime Market.  Remember, however, no one ever accused lenders of being smart.  You probably would not even deal with them were it not for the fact that they have all the money.

** A term coined by Joseph Schumpeter in his work entitled “Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy” (1942) to denote a “process of industrial mutation that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one.”

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Good News

If you are involved in commercial real estate (CRE) and looking for a reason to get out of bed in the morning, there is good news.  To those who view commercial real estate loans as the mother’s milk of investing, I say put on your bib because mother is about to feed you.   More

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Perceptible Progress

The CRE financing market continues to wiggle its way out of the cocoon in which it has been bound.  Maybe a more apt metaphor is that CRE financing market is slowly pulling its legs out of the mud into which it sunk and has been trapped.  If that conjures unpleasant images of dirty feet, how about CRE lenders continue to dip their collective toe in the water, sorta of a process of cleansing and renewal. More

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S.C. gave architect of world’s tallest building a foundation

Alfred Smith was picking through women’s clothing at a wholesale warehouse in Los Angeles to find merchandise for his San Clemente department store named after his youngest son, Adrian. But the vacationing college student wasn’t interested in selecting women’s clothing.

Read complete article by clicking Orange County Register More

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Transportation needs will affect location of new development

The location of new commercial real estate will be determined by how fast the economy recovers, how additional commercial development fits future residential strategies, and how decisions about growth are made. More

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Zoliath.com – new video explains the vast reach of its commercial real estate website

Zoliath.com has just produced a new video that clearly explains how this commercial real estate industry website works and how it brings together potential clients and customers with professionals nationwide.

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