NAR forecasts steady 2015 for Commercial,Multifamily slight decline

Source:, Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:15 PST

NAR forecasts steady 2015 for commercial, slight decline for multifamily

Economic turmoil around the world may not shake the commercial sector in 2015, according to a forecast issued by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The U.S. economy will mostly improve in 2015, the NAR predicts, which will bolster the industrial, office and retail sectors.

In 2015, NAR forecasts that the gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at a rate of 2.7 percent, up from 2.2 percent in 2014; consumer confidence will edge up eight points to 95; and the unemployment rate will fall slightly, to 5.7 percent.

If the global economy does poorly in 2015, however, a widening trade deficit could cause some problems in the U.S.

“GDP growth in the fourth quarter [of 2014] will be sluggish, at around 2 percent behind stalling exports,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a release. “Although GDP will likely climb to near 3 percent in 2015, the current pace of job growth could slow and ultimately impact commercial real estate activity if sluggishness in the global economy persists.”

Meanwhile, office, industrial and retail will all see vacancy rates fall in 2015, but not by much. Office vacancies will drop one basis point to 15.6 percent by the end of 2015, industrial will decline four basis points to 8.4 percent, and retail will drop two basis points to 9.5 percent.

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