As of July 1^st the following obtains.

Since January:

- The Dow is down 695.52, or 6.7 %

- The S&P is down 87.73, or 7.9%

- The Nasdaq is down 167.79, or 7.4%.

That’s not such good news.  How about the bond market, what’s happening there and what does that tell us?

-  The 10 Yr Treasury Yield is at 2.95% on the first day of Q3 2010.

That’s gotta be good news right?  Wrong!  When do T Yields get that low?  They get to that level when meaningful segments of the US and world economy are under severe stress and alternative investments are considered risky.  What’s an alternative investment?  Assets such as real estate.  Low Treasury Yields often signal low long term interest rates, but be careful what you wish for.  If rates get too low, as they are now, it is a sign of economic contagion.  It is a symptom of a disease infecting the capital markets and the economy.

Ironically, we welcomed the advent of Q2 2010 in April with the 10 Yr Treasury Yield rising through the 4.0% level.  Now it’s 100 basis points lower and yet that is not cause for celebration.

Treasury Yields were last in the range below 3.0% in late Q4 2008 and Q1 & 2 2009, in the shadow of the worldwide collapse of the capital markets.  That was the threshold of the worst economic crises experienced during the careers of anyone reading this.  It’s been 80 years since the world’s economies have faced challenges of greater magnitude than those we face today.

How About Some Good News?

There is good news, more in the nature of “green shoots”, obviously not full blown economic revival.

Commercial Real Estate (CRE) has generally been starved for debt capital.  In contrast, multi-family property continues to benefit from the largesse of the GSE’s (Fannie & Freddie).

It is fair to say that most of the big life companies are back in the game.  That’s the good news. But product criteria are still narrow, i.e., deals with NO hair, fully stabilized, nothing smaller than $10-$15M.  Bottom line: those institutions are chasing (are your ready for this?) institutional grade properties.

More good news is that rates are very aggressive, typically in the range of low 5% to mid-6%. Leverage is loosening up also.  Some will lend up to the low 70% range.  As one large life company guy said to me, “It’s back to the future”.  The competition for Prime deals is savage. They are all chasing the same limited number of qualifying Prime deals and like buyers doing the same, they are having to compromise cap rate objectives.  But also like buyers, they are dealing in a rarified range of product and it’s a product everyone wants.  It is this chase which seems to be giving rise to the observation that cap rates are falling.  That, plus the fact that cap rates are falling for multi-family.  The latter is thanks to the extraordinary financing available from the GSE’s.

Deals <$10M can find financing, but the rates are not as favorable as those noted above and there are fewer lenders active in that range.

Multi-Family

Consider this about multi-family:

1.  Refi – HUD 223(f) is currently priced below 4.2%, 35yr fully amortizing.  However, it takes 6 months to get approval so it is not viable for acquisition financing.

2.  Fannie – today you could get a Fannie loan at 5.1% – 5.2%, 80% LTV.  Obviously, those low rates are symptomatic of a sick capital market and a desperate monetary policy.  At this time the 10 Yr T Yield is 2.95%.  It has been at that level before and every time it has been there, it has been the sign of a contagion.  In late 2008 early 2009, in the post crash shadow, the T Yield was that low.  Then again in 1998 with the post LTCM default and Russian bankruptcy it was in that range for a short period.   If the T Yield falls much lower, we will be in a virtual “non-market” because it is a sign of contagion, not health.

CMBS

The CMBS market is showing nascent signs of revival.  But it will take awhile.  Maybe the God-awful low bond yields will drive investors to CMBS sooner rather than later.  But currently, CMBS is not a viable financing solution for the typical CRE property.

About the Author: Jack Harty is the President of Harty Capital | Commercial Mortgage and Asset Recovery Advisory Services.  Please click on the link to Harty Capital for more information.

Watch the video here to learn more about why this website is quickly becoming the premier website for linking owners, tenants and lenders with pre-screened commercial real estate professionals in markets across the country.

A GlobeSt.com article indicates what most of us in the industry already know; that smaller regional and community banks are the ones who hold a majority of commercial real estate loans.  Many of these loans will come due in the next four years and with commercial properties valued at up to 40% below below their value at loan origination, many of these banks will not be around in the future.  This will have a greater impact in secondary markets where access to institutional capital is non-existent and interest from larger lenders is lacking due to low loan-size and volume.

In today’s challenging economy, Owners and Investors are seeking out the best values available in commercial real estate and attempting to negotiate the optimum terms to lease or purchase real estate.  In order to achieve such goals and objectives Owners and Investors should utilize a qualified and experienced professional.  Following are ten simple reasons to hire a commercial real estate broker.

Experience: Commercial real estate is not rocket science yet can be complex in structuring advantageous lease or purchase terms.  Nothing in business can replace years of hands on experience.  You may have access to some real estate information via the library, newspapers, Google and the internet but the benefit of hands on experiences is priceless.  A seasoned commercial real estate broker who has lived through the beginning and the end of numerous transactions can offer the benefit of their experiences to your real estate transaction.  This experience is Priceless!

Market Knowledge: As in every industry, market conditions are constantly changing and opportunities are found and lost on a daily basis.  The commercial real estate industry is very proprietary on sharing information unlike the residential real estate market.  A commercial real estate broker processes hundreds of opportunities each day through various sources while filtering out the best for their clients.

Specialization: In most metropolitan cities, commercial real estate brokers specialize in an area such as the office, industrial or retail markets.  As a result, they achieve and maintain expertise in that specialty and utilize this expertize when seeking out and obtaining optimum terms for their clients.

Time Management: A business owner or manager usually has their hands full running the day to day operations of their company.  By engaging the services of an experienced commercial real estate broker, owners and managers can maintain their focus on their business while obtaining the benefits and guidance of real estate professional in quantifying and securing their new facility.

Cost Savings: The most common reason people don’t engage a commercial real estate broker is to save on the cost of a commission.  In commercial real estate the majority of properties are listed by  owners with commercial real estate firms and or have commission agreements with their in house marketing people.  In such cases a compensation or commission is already built into the pricing of the property or space and it is customary to split commissions with cooperating brokers representing tenants.  Thus, no real savings usually are achieved here.  More important aspects to consider are the cost savings that can be achieved through time management, successful negotiations, and proper deal structuring and market knowledge that only an experienced commercial real estate broker brings to the table.

Negotiations: The art of negotiating in a specific industry is honed over years of transactions.  Successful negotiation of a real estate transaction is stressful and in many cases time consuming for those involved.  A commercial real estate broker utilizes their experience in handling negotiations for their client relieving them of that stress by acting as a buffer, and freeing up their client’s time so that the client can focus on their daily business.

Deal Structure: Each and every real estate transaction is concurrently similar yet unique in its structure and function.  Proper structuring of a transaction can save a client hundreds if not thousands of dollars.  An example of potential savings deals with proper structure of “Base Year” in leases for building operating expenses.  Compounding these costs over a five year term can either be a) costly or b) savings to the tenant dependent upon the negotiated structure of the lease terms.

Professional Network: An experienced commercial broker specializing in a specific area has established a proprietary network of resources and informational contacts to assist and support their commercial real estate transactions.  This network of resources can be utilized as needed for your real estate transaction at no additional cost, or time via your commercial real estate broker.

Access to Data and Systems: An experienced commercial broker has established systems to facilitate the process and eliminate unnecessary costs.  These systems, combined with years of accumulated data are available to you via the commercial broker to assist you in the transaction process.  The result is an efficient, cost effective method of securing your real estate requirement on the most beneficial terms to you.

Integrated Services: An experienced commercial broker will be able to provide a client with integrated services relative to their real estate requirement whether they are internal or external consultants.  Securing qualified service providers such as economic incentive consultants, I.T. providers, legal and accounting services to name a few can be a time consuming and costly process added on to the stress of securing the real estate.

The author of this article, Guy Levingston, SIOR is a commercial real estate broker with Intermountain Commercial Real Estate, LLC. based in Boise, Idaho.  Guy’s area of specialization is in office properties and office tenant representation.  You can learn more about Guy by clicking on his name, above.

When the onset of multi-screen cinemas began to take hold in San Diego, this particular theater went out of business leaving a 25,000 square foot, single purpose building with a sloped floor. What to do?  As a retail broker for a large national commercial real estate brokerage firm at the time, I was able to experience this creative recycling process first hand as the landlord was able to remodel the building and lease it to Bookstar (I believe they are owned by Barnes & Noble) and keep the theme of a classic movie theater intact.  The landlord and tenant kept the design of the sloped floors while creating level aisles as the floor sloped toward the former screen, enabling customers to slowly browse the bookshelves as they worked their way from the old entrance to what was once the first row of seats.  The theater concession lobby was remodeled into the checkout area.  The end result was a very impressive looking building that was one of the first mega-bookstores in Southern California.

The commercial real estate industry has an even larger challenge these days as we try to come up with creative ideas to recycle larger, less architecturally significant buildings such as anchor tenant spaces in regional malls, multi-tenant office buildings in suburban office markets, former call centers, industrial buildings in downtown locations and even theme parks and recreational facilities.  We are seeing interesting ideas emerge and landlords not only face the challenge of convincing tenants to “buy-in” to a new concept but must convince lenders to do the same.  Recycling buildings can be an expensive proposition, as can be seen in some of the examples in the attached article from the Wall Street Journal.  However, the alternative which is trying to re-lease these buildings for the same use as that which previously occupied these buildings, may just be akin to putting a band-aid on a gun shot wound.

We are going to see some interesting ideas emerge in the next few years.  Auto dealerships leasing space in vacant department stores within regional malls, hotels going into former office buildings and jails, and others that have yet to be thought up will reshape our landscape.  Please read the article, Entrepreneurs Make Use of Odd Spaces, as I think it is well written and provides some real life examples of how the country is dealing with this re-emerging opportunity.

After reviewing literally thousands of websites over the last 12 months we (Zoliath.com) can say that the best websites in our opinion are the ones that combine key information and “flavor.”  Every Friday we are going to highlight one of these websites.  Sometimes the company who owns the highlighted website will be one that advertises on Zoliath.com but this will not always be the case.  Our goal with Innovative Friday is to make our readers aware of websites that are both informative, creative, and fun.  After all, isn’t advertising by its very nature supposed to leave the viewer with a positive lasting impression?  Just like memorable commercials aired during the Super Bowl, websites can impart a positive message in each of us if presented correctly.  We hope you find these websites as visually pleasing and flavorful as we do!

Our pick for the first website to be displayed on Innovative Friday belongs to Legend Retail Group in Denver, Colorado.  This is a site that is laid out extremely well.  It combines all of the elements of an informative website and does so in a way that engages the visitor to navigate far longer than one would on a more traditional industry website.  Cheers to Legend Retail Group for being the first to make the grade with Zoliath.com.  Legend is an advertiser on our website and can be found under Commercial R.E. brokerages.

If you would like to submit other commercial real estate industry websites for inclusion in Innovative Friday please send us a link and we will be sure to take it under consideration.  The only qualification is that the website must fall into one of the categories listed in Zoliath.com.  Have a great weekend.

Link to article in Retail Traffic

The article (linked below) offers an interesting perspective of the state of the commercial real estate market.  While Zoliath’s view of the market is through the eyes of the people in the trenches, Mr. Stewart offers a view from REITs, mutual funds and individual stocks backed by industry trends and statistics.  Enjoy!

Check the Real Estate: It’s Time to Delve In